Market Shock: Polymarket Predicts 84% Odds of Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
Prediction market giant Polymarket has signaled a massive shift in macroeconomic sentiment, with odds now hitting 84% for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. This sudden 'risk-off' swing reflects growing investor anxiety regarding long-term monetary policy and global stability.
The shift follows a sharp U.S. stock selloff and a surge in Treasury yields, exacerbated by escalating Middle East conflicts that drove oil prices higher. As fed funds futures adjust to these new realities, the implications for liquidity and risk assets remain a critical focal point for traders worldwide.
Polymarket is seeing a dramatic shift in expectations, with an 84% probability assigned to the Federal Reserve making zero interest rate cuts in 2026. This pivot follows a significant risk-off movement in the global financial markets.
Amidst a U.S. stock selloff, oil prices jumped on renewed Middle East conflict headlines, while Treasury yields climbed. These movements, coupled with fed funds futures boosting the implied chance of rate adjustments, have fundamentally reshaped the outlook for the coming years.
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