Russia Fuel Crisis: Polymarket Odds for Putin's Exit Surge to 20%

Internal instability in Russia is reaching a breaking point, with the prediction market Polymarket raising the odds of Vladimir Putin's exit by 2027 to 20%. This sudden shift is driven by worsening fuel shortages across the nation, leaving drivers facing massive queues and widespread supply disruptions.

The crisis is being exacerbated by drone strikes targeting critical energy infrastructure, such as refineries in Omsk, leading to station closures. As fuel scarcity intensifies, the resulting economic and social pressure is significantly impacting political forecasting and the perceived stability of the Russian leadership.

Russia's internal stability is facing a significant test as the Polymarket prediction platform raises the odds of Vladimir Putin exiting power by 2027 to 20%. The surge in these probabilities follows worsening fuel shortages that have left drivers facing multi-day lines at gas stations. The energy crisis has been intensified by drone strikes hitting key refineries, including reports from Omsk on July 6, which have forced several stations to close and heightened the sense of domestic volatility.