Delinquencies squeeze banks in 2Q26: Itaú and XP may ride the turbulence

📌 Intel Brief: Delinquency risk is still the dominant pressure point for 2Q26, with 83.5 million people in arrears and 30% of income already committed. With credit quality deteriorating, banks face higher operational and credit stress—while the market starts positioning for winners.

In a backdrop where risk costs are likely to rise and consumer caution increases, Itaú and XP are emerging as top bets. The signals point to a potential shift: more exposed lenders could lose momentum, while better-positioned firms may capture flow—turning the conversation toward delinquencies, credit risk management, and the impact of income strain on lending cycles.

With 83.5 million Brazilians in arrears and 30% of income already committed, the banking sector is entering 2Q26 under pressure. Delinquency is back at the center of decision-making, increasing the cost of risk and testing how well institutions can protect margins in a tighter credit environment.

Against this backdrop, investors are already debating who may come out ahead. Among the leading picks, Itaú and XP stand out in market projections, driven by the view that turbulence can favor players with stronger risk management and the capacity to navigate the cycle. The likely outcome is an even more competitive push for customers and operational efficiency, as delinquencies continue to set the pace for banks through 2Q26.